A confluence of technological breakthroughs, heightened sustainability concerns, and demographic changes is set to revolutionise the business travel landscape, according to a special supplement titled 2040: Baseline, Boom, or Bust released by CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA).
The supplement examines three distinct scenarios that could define the future of business travel.
In the Base Case scenario, business travel is projected to stabilise with a moderate growth rate, reaching just over one billion passengers by 2040. This growth is driven by a balanced approach to sustainability and technology, with companies adopting eco-friendly practices and advanced travel management tools. Companies will prioritise essential travel, leveraging virtual meeting technologies to enhance efficiency. The percentage of the workforce involved in business travel is expected to rise to nearly 18 per cent, reflecting a steady but measured increase.
Under the Boom scenario, business travel experiences robust growth, with the number of global business travellers exceeding 1.2 billion passengers by 2040. This surge is fuelled by increased travel to emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, which are projected to account for a substantial portion of the growth. The widespread adoption of sustainable aviation fuel and advancements in green technology contribute to this scenario. Nearly 22 per cent of the global workforce is involved in business travel, driven by heightened global collaboration and the integration of AI, VR, and automation in travel processes.
In the Bust scenario, business travel growth slows significantly, with the number of business travellers reaching around 800 million by 2040. This slowdown is attributed to stringent sustainability regulations, slow adoption of eco-friendly practices, and the rise of remote and flexible work arrangements. Companies will increasingly rely on virtual interactions and hybrid events, focusing on essential trips only.
Geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty further contribute to the reduction in travel, with stricter visa regulations and carbon taxes playing a role in the diminished travel demand.
The supplement also provides actionable recommendations for businesses, including investing in data analytics, embracing technological innovation, building strategic partnerships, and focusing on employee well-being to navigate the future of business travel effectively.
“The future of business travel is at a critical juncture, driven by technological advancements, sustainability mandates, and evolving global dynamics,” said Nick Vournakis, executive vice president and chief customer officer at CWT. “Our report emphasises the need for businesses to be adaptable and proactive in their travel strategies. Whether navigating a boom in global travel or adapting to a slowdown, businesses that proactively integrate technology, prioritise sustainability, and stay agile will be best positioned to thrive in this shifting landscape.”
The full supplement can be accessed here.
