THE Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has upgraded its forecast for the year, encouraged by an improving economic outlook with business and consumer confidence on the rise.
According to the GBTA BTI Outlook – United States 2013 Q1, a report sponsored by Visa, Inc and which aggregates business travel trends over the next eight quarters, American business travel is now expected to rise 5.1 per cent in 2013 to US$$268.5 billion. This is an upward revision from the 4.6 per cent growth to US$266.7 billion that GBTA had predicted last quarter and a substantial increase from 2012’s 1.8 per cent growth.
Group spend is also expected to rise six per cent to US$115.9 billion, up from the 5.2 per cent growth forecasted in 4Q2012.
GBTA’s outlook for trip volume remains the same from last quarter – a slight decline of 1.1 per cent to 431.7 million person-trips.
The GBTA BTI, a proprietary index of business travel activity, is also estimated to reach 121 in 1Q2013, a figure that will exceed the pre-recession high of 120 and mark a comeback from the low 97 seen in 4Q2009. The BTI is expected to continue rising for the rest of the year, reaching 126 by end-2013.
GBTA executive director and COO, Michael W McCormick, said: “Business confidence is up and the need to compete in the global economy is driving companies to invest in business travel. Despite continued political uncertainty in the US and around the world, businesses are beginning to break out of their holding pattern and seek growth more aggressively. While there are still many factors that could hamper the economy again, from the impact of sequestration to rising energy prices, business travel spending is heading in the right direction so far in 2013.”
The GBTA BTI Outlook – United States 2013 Q1 also uncovered a strong correlation between stock prices and business travel spend, revealing that improving stock prices historically lead to better trip performance. With the market hitting record highs in the first quarter of this year, GBTA expects business travel to pick up additional momentum throughout the second half of 2013.
