THE Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has upgraded its forecast for the year, encouraged by an improving economic outlook with business and consumer confidence on the rise.

According to the GBTA BTI Outlook – United States 2013 Q1, a report sponsored by Visa, Inc and which aggregates business travel trends over the next eight quarters, American business travel is now expected to rise 5.1 per cent in 2013 to US$$268.5 billion. This is an upward revision from the 4.6 per cent growth to US$266.7 billion that GBTA had predicted last quarter and a substantial increase from 2012’s 1.8 per cent growth.

Group spend is also expected to rise six per cent to US$115.9 billion, up from the 5.2 per cent growth forecasted in 4Q2012.

GBTA’s outlook for trip volume remains the same from last quarter – a slight decline of 1.1 per cent to 431.7 million person-trips.

The GBTA BTI, a proprietary index of business travel activity, is also estimated to reach 121 in 1Q2013, a figure that will exceed the pre-recession high of 120 and mark a comeback from the low 97 seen in 4Q2009. The BTI is expected to continue rising for the rest of the year, reaching 126 by end-2013.

GBTA executive director and COO, Michael W McCormick, said: “Business confidence is up and the need to compete in the global economy is driving companies to invest in business travel. Despite continued political uncertainty in the US and around the world, businesses are beginning to break out of their holding pattern and seek growth more aggressively. While there are still many factors that could hamper the economy again, from the impact of sequestration to rising energy prices, business travel spending is heading in the right direction so far in 2013.”

The GBTA BTI Outlook – United States 2013 Q1 also uncovered a strong correlation between stock prices and business travel spend, revealing that improving stock prices historically lead to better trip performance. With the market hitting record highs in the first quarter of this year, GBTA expects business travel to pick up additional momentum throughout the second half of 2013.

THE political exchanges between South and North Korea, as well as the H7N9 bird flu strain discovered in China have spooked clients into rethinking travel plans, according to some business event organisers in Singapore and Malaysia.

Selangor-based MICE Hubs Travel and Tours’ managing director, Konrad Ong, said a number of incentive clients had recently asked to cancel or postpone their programmes to China.

“As for South Korea, it has become a rather difficult destination to sell ever since North Korea started making nuclear threats. The decline in interest in South Korea is matched by a rise in demand for Japan, which I believe is also caused by the weakening Japanese yen,” Ong said, adding that a 12-pax incentive group has been secured for Kyoto this August.

Clients behind a 5,000-pax event, which would take place in Shanghai late-September, were also in a “state of panic over risk management”, said Felicia Teng, general manager of The Meeting Lab Singapore, who noted that insurance coverage of the event and attendees was one area of concern.

“Because of the scale of the event, many commitments have already been made and it is too late to make changes to the programme now. We are holding an international meeting in April and May to get everyone’s feedback on the extent of risk we should take,” Teng said.

Daniel Chua, owner of Aonia Singapore pointed out that business event clients were especially sensitive to security issues and would “generally avoid sources of potential conflict”.

“I’ve just been called to a meeting over a business event that is supposed to take place in Seoul on June 8 and 9. Clients are rethinking it now and they must decide soon,” Chua said.

Meanwhile, International SOS has issued a statement on the bird flu outbreak in China, declaring that “there is little risk to people residing in or travelling to China” and that there is “no need to alter travel plans if appropriate precautions are taken”.

Mick Sharp, regional security director, Asia Pacific for Travel Security Services, a joint venture between International SOS and Control Risks, also told TTGmice e-Weekly: “As of now, travel to South Korea can continue, and there is no requirement for those in the country to evacuate. However, travellers should closely monitor developments and seek itinerary-specific advice prior to their visit, and register with their embassy during their stay. Companies should continue to ensure that their crisis management plans remain up-to-date and effective.”