Global business travel spending is set to hit a record US$1.6 trillion in 2025, reflecting a moderate 6.6% growth year-over-year.
While current spending is slowed by trade tensions and economic pressures, an 8.1% rebound is projected for 2026, though long-term forecasts face ongoing volatility.
Despite near-term challenges, global spending is still projected to surpass US$2 trillion by 2029 – a year later than previously anticipated. This growth is driven by structural shifts in trade, investment, and corporate travel behaviour.
These findings come from the latest GBTA Business Travel Index (“BTI”) Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast, released by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) at its annual convention in Denver.
The GBTA BTI projects spending growth of 6.4% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2028, modestly higher than a year ago. However, this growth’s pace and trajectory depend heavily on the resolution – or escalation – of global trade tensions.
“As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady – but the road ahead is more complex,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. “Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead.”
Global trade tensions impact growth momentum
The latest forecast reflects a moderation from double-digit gains of the past two years. Trade policy uncertainty has emerged as a key risk leading to downward revisions in business travel growth projections for 2025 (from 10.4% projected a year ago, to 6.6% now), and 2026 (from 9.2% projected a year ago, to 8.1% now).
Spending figures for 2024 were also adjusted in this latest forecast – spending rose to US$1.47 trillion, slightly below the previously projected US$1.48 trillion. While this still marked a new high, real inflation-adjusted spending remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume.
Impacts diverge among regional markets and industry sectors
In the 2025 forecast, the top 15 markets for business travel spending represent US$1.3 trillion. The two top markets – the US (US$395.4 billion) and China (US$373.1 billion) – together represent 58% of that total.
The U.S. is projected to reclaim the top spot this year followed by China (which led the list in 2024 and 2023), Germany, Japan, and the UK.
India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the fastest growing among the top 15 markets, while Spain and the Netherlands are forecast to have little to no growth or a slight decrease.
Business travel spending across industries will also continue to vary.
Trade-sensitive sectors such as Manufacturing (which accounts for nearly one-third of global business spending), and Wholesale Trade face heightened risks if trade tensions further escalate.
Service sectors like Arts & Entertainment and Professional Services have exceeded pre-pandemic benchmarks, with some growing travel spend by over 20%.
Looking ahead, Mining and Information and Communication are each expected to post the strongest growth in business travel spend, while Agriculture faces the weakest outlook amid shrinking access to export markets.
Global business traveller sentiment remains strong
A global survey of over 7,300 business travellers across 33 countries in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East reveals continued evolution and confidence in the value of traveling for work:
Business travel is seen as valuable – 86% rate their trips as worthwhile. Primary trip purposes cited vary by region, with training and conferences topping the list globally.
Most travellers (74%) took between one and five trips in the past year, and over 80% say they are traveling for work as much or more than before 2019. Moreover, average trip spending rose to US$1,128 (up from US$834 in the 2024 survey).
Expense systems are common (67% use them), and comfort with artificial intelligence booking tools is growing, especially in Asia Pacific (78%).
Corporate card access rose to 69%, led by North America (73%). However, only half of cardholders are required to use them. Mobile wallet use is also up, with 64% adoption globally and 72% in Asia Pacific.
The GBTA BTI report is a comprehensive five-year forecast on business travel spending covering 72 countries and 44 industries and includes insights from more than 7,300 global business travellers.
In its 17th edition and made possible in partnership with Visa, this latest forecast reflects a continued recovery in nominal terms but signals growing headwinds from global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
Maquaire brings extensive leadership experience with French companies operating internationally. He has a background in premium brand transformation and commercial real estate, with a record of driving growth and operational performance. He joins Club Med from Carrefour, where he was executive director for Brazil and Latin America.
